Journal Articles (Refereed):
Police Force Size and Civilian Race (with Aaron Chalfin, Ben Hansen, and Emily Weisburst, Forthcoming in American Economic Review: Insights)
Abstract: We report the first empirical estimate of the race-specific effects of larger police forces in the United States. Each additional police officer abates approximately 0.1 homicides. In per capita terms, effects are twice as large for Black versus white victims. At the same time, larger police forces make more arrests for low-level “quality-of-life” offenses, with effects that imply a disproportionate burden for Black Americans. Notably, cities with large Black populations do not share equally in the benefits of investments in police manpower. Our results provide novel empirical support for the popular narrative that Black communities are simultaneously over and under-policed.
- NBER Working Paper Version
- Most Recent Version
- Media Coverage: Niskanen Center, Washington Post
- Podcasts: The Weeds
Gun Violence in Black and White: Evidence from Policy Reform in Missouri
Abstract: The extent to which gun control policies contribute to the significant racial disparities in U.S. gun violence remains largely unexplored in the empirical gun control literature. On August 28, 2007 the Missouri General Assembly repealed an 86 year-old “permit-to-purchase” (PTP) law requiring that handgun purchasers possess a permit, and subsequently undergo a background check, for all sales. Using generalized synthetic control methodology, this paper examines the impact of the 2007 Missouri PTP repeal on city-level gun violence and enforcement activity across racial groups. Estimates suggest that the repeal led to exponential growth in statewide FBI handgun background checks among licensed dealers and a 24 percent increase in the fraction of suicides committed with a firearm (FSS) within the City of St. Louis and Jackson County. Within St. Louis and Kansas City, the repeal led to a 19 percent increase in Black firearm homicide and a 22 percent decrease in Black non-gun homicide primarily driven by weapon substitution among Black youth. The escalation in Black gun violence coincides with a 125 percent decrease in aggravated assault arrests and a 44 percent decrease in weapons arrests among Black suspects. While this study largely finds no evidence of significant changes in White homicide victimization and enforcement activity, law enforcement officers themselves experience an additional 2.33 gun assaults per 100 officers. The disproportionate shifts in gun violence, and declines in policing productivity, remain consistent with a preemption model in which strategic complementarities in violence contribute to disproportionate changes in homicide across racial groups as firearms become more readily available.
Body-Worn Cameras and Policing: Benefits and Costs (with Nathan Weil, Elizabeth A. Rasich, Jens Ludwig, Hye Chang, and Sophia Egrari)
Abstract: Body-worn cameras (BWCs) are an increasingly common tool for police oversight, accountability, and transparency, yet there remains uncertainty about their impacts on policing outcomes. This paper reviews what we know about the benefits of BWCs and how those benefits compare to the costs of this new technology. We make two contributions relative to existing research. First, we update prior meta-analyses of studies of the impacts of BWCs on policing outcomes to incorporate the most recent, and largest, studies carried out to date in this literature. This additional information provides additional support for the idea that cameras may affect a number of policing outcomes that are important from a social welfare perspective, particularly police use of force. Second, we carry out a benefit-cost analysis of BWCs, as financial barriers are often cited as a key impediment to adoption by police departments. Our baseline estimate for the benefit-cost ratio of BWCs is 4.95. Perhaps as much as one-quarter of the estimated benefits accrue to government budgets directly, which suggests the possibility that this technology could, from the narrow perspective of government budgets, even pay for itself.
Profiling in Criminal Justice (with Brendan O’Flaherty and Rajiv Sethi)
Abstract: We provide a selective survey of the literature on profiling by criminal justice agents, including changes in the nature of discrimination resulting from the proliferation of algorithms for prediction. We argue for a taxonomy of harms that differs somewhat from the conventional approach taken by economists.
Does Proactive Policing Really Increase Major Crime? Accounting for an Ecological Fallacy (with Aaron Chalfin and David Mitre Becerril)
The Effects of Compulsory Schooling on Health and Hospitalization over the Life-Cycle (with Markus Gehrsitz)
Abstract: Despite serving as one of the more celebrated relationships in health economics, evidence on the relationship between education and health remains quite mixed–with limited research devoted to how these effects evolve over time. Leveraging a 1972 compulsory schooling reform within the United Kingdom, this paper examines the effects of education on health and health care utilization over the life cycle. Our regression discontinuity estimates suggest that while the reform did not produce meaningful changes in self-reported health, hospitalization among men decreased for admissions stemming from lifestyle-related conditions–with these effects varying heterogeneously over the life cycle.
Work in Progress:
Health Insurance Loss and Recidivist Behavior: Evidence from New York State Medicaid Policy Reform (with Sherry Glied and Renata Howland)
Recidivism and the Labor Markets for Ex-Convicts: Evidence from New York State “Ban-the-Box” Laws (with Jed Armstrong and Glenn C. Loury)
Underground Gun Markets and Homicide (with Brendan O’Flaherty and Rajiv Sethi)